Quantum Computing is Here
We’ve had two significant advances in quantum computing technology in recent months. Google developed a quantum chip called Willow in December and more recently, Microsoft unveiled a chip called Majorana 1. This is really exciting stuff. It won’t be commercialized anytime soon, but increasingly, it looks like the next computing revolution is on our doorstep. Quantum is today where AI was about ten years ago. When and if, quantum becomes more practical and economical, quantum chips will genuinely change the world.
For a non-specialists, it’s challenging to understand (much less explain) how quantum computing works. But the basic difference between quantum and classical computing is that in classical computing you have two states for each bit (1 or 0). Whereas in quantum computing you take advantage of two concepts called superposition and entanglement to have a near infinite number of states for each bit. Classical computing is like reading a book one page at a time. Quantum computing is like reading every page in a book at the same time.
Quantum computers have the potential to be exponentially more powerful than even the most powerful supercomputers of today. In (admittedly highly selective) tests the new quantum chips have been able to solve certain mathematical problems in minutes, that would take a classic computer an almost incalculable amount of time to solve. What these tests amount to is proof of concept. The theory is correct, and the chips really do work. The remaining challenges with quantum computing are substantial but mostly technical in nature.
The main technical challenges relate to the fact that the “state” or information held in a quantum chip is extremely fragile and sensitive to outside interference. This means that they tend to be (for lack of better terms) leaky, and error-prone. Things like magnetic waves, temperature changes, vibration, radio waves and even background radiation from space, tend to create errors to a degree that can render their output useless. Right now, scientists are mitigating those problems through the use of extensive shielding, isolating them from interference and keeping them very cold or even suspended within a vacuum. This is obviously impractical in most computing applications. The work is now to design chips which are less sensitive, less error prone and better able to self-correct.
When those problems are solved, we will have chips which open up entirely new possibilities to humanity, particularly when paired with AI. It could deliver dramatically more effective modeling of natural phenomena like weather, climate, ecosystems, protein-folding, and even fundamental physics. This could in turn lead to breakthroughs in many scientific fields with applications in energy, materials, medicine, navigation, encryption and more.
Of course, quantum computing will be a dual-use technology and that comes with risks as well. It is expected to make all current forms of encryption useless, and will open up untold possibilities for hacking, espionage, and the like. The same advances that lead to faster drug discovery can be used to develop bio-weapons. And we can be sure this technology will run far ahead of any genuine attempts at oversight and regulation in the places it’s being pursued the most aggressively (the US and China).
From the investment angle, unfortunately, this is a theme that will be difficult to “play” for a while yet. Big tech companies, like Microsoft and Alphabet may provide meaningful commercial exposure to quantum computing in the future. But many of the companies that will be involved in quantum are probably not here yet and certainly not publicly listed. Still, it will be fascinating to see what unfolds over the next decade.